All posts by theixer

Saturday Divisional Round Predictions

January 12, 2019Uncategorizedtheixer

football

I went 4-0 in my picks ATS in the Wild Card Weekend. Let’s see how it goes from here.

Colts @ Chiefs (KC -5 ½)

This game has all the makings of a shootout. Andrew Luck and Patrick Mahomes were two of the best quarterbacks of the regular season. The Colts came into the playoffs as the hottest team in the NFL and looked impressive in their Wild Card Weekend win against Houston. The Chiefs, led by Head Coach Andy Reid, put up a lot of points this season, even in their losses.

I give the QB edge to the Colts, but they are a young and fairly unknown roster, led by a first-year head coach in Frank Reich. So, coaching edge and roster goes to the Chiefs. That being said, there is an awful lot of pressure on Kansas City, particularly on Andy Reid, to make a successful run in the playoffs. Actually, given the hype around this team, anything short of a Superbowl appearance will be a disappointment. The Colts, in my opinion, were a year away from being a playoff team at the beginning of the season, so in a sense, they are playing with house money.

The weather forecast in Kansas City calls for cold temperatures and snow, which might put a damper on what is expected to be a high scoring game (bet the under). I think the Chiefs win this game, but will not cover the 5 ½, so take the Colts with the points.

Cowboys @ Rams (LA -7)

Like the Chiefs, there is a lot of pressure on the Rams to win this game and make a solid playoff run. Given the recent coaching hires around the NFL, Rams’ Head Coach Sean McVay is certainly under pressure to prove he is the new model for success in the league, and QB Jared Goff is still looking for his first playoff win after getting bounced by Atlanta last year.

The Dallas Cowboys are coming off a tight win against Seattle and now have to go on the road and face a rested LA team. In this case, I think the bye helped LA, particularly RB Todd Gurley. I think Dallas’ defense will keep them in this game, and if QB Dak Prescott protects the football and the offense can find balance between RB Ezekiel Elliot and WR Amari Cooper, they have a good shot at winning this game. However, I expect an impressive performance from Gurley and by the end of the game, the Cowboys defense will be worn, giving the edge to the Rams.

A touchdown favorite does not sit right with me, so I like the Rams to win the game, but I will take the Cowboys with the points.

*Betting lines via Westgate Sports Book

Wild Card Weekend Predictions

January 5, 2019Uncategorizedtheixer

football

Colts @ Texans (Houston -1)

Andrew Luck and the Colts are coming into the playoffs hot. They have won nine of their last ten games, which includes a win over Houston just weeks ago. Indianapolis is dangerous – their QB is healthy and in his prime, and the rest of the team is young and hungry. Beware. The Texan’s defense will need to get pressure on Luck to keep this game in their favor, which they are more than capable of doing, but I like the Colts to win this game outright.

Seahawks @ Cowboys (Dallas -2)

When it comes to quarterback and coach, I give the edge to Seattle with Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll. Both have been here before and have won it all here before. That being said, Dallas’ defensive front seven are among the most athletic and best in the league, and since adding Amari Cooper in October, their offense is far more potent. They are also playing at home and starved for playoff run. I like Dallas to win this game and cover the two points.

Chargers @ Ravens (Baltimore -2 ½ )

In Week 16 we saw the Ravens take care of the Chargers in a 22-10 victory – on the road. And, rookie Lamar Jackson of Baltimore is proving himself to be quite a threat as a rushing QB and, at times, a capable passer of the football. The Ravens have a solid run game which will allow them to control time of possession and the clock. But, as much as it has been difficult for me to trust Philip Rivers and the Chargers in the past, I think they win this game. This is probably Rivers’ last chance at a Superbowl run and this LA roster has been overlooked all season. I will take Chargers getting the points, but I also think they win outright.

Eagles @ Bears (Chicago -6 ½)

Here we have young Chicago QB Mitch Trubinsky thriving in a rather creative offensive system under Coach Matt Nagy against the defending Superbowl Championship Eagles, and Nick Foles, who, for reasons unknown is magic this time of year. I somewhat buy into Foles and the Eagles at this late stage and think they will give Bears a test. But, I like the Bears’ defense to make a late play and take this game away from a Philadelphia team that is not what it was a year ago. Chicago will win, but they will not cover the spread.

Book it. By the way, I am not much for betting the over/under, but if I HAD to, I would say Saturday games go over and the Sunday games go under.

*Betting lines via Westgate Sports Book